OK ,,now the Nogaps ( very reliable model )has the system moving inline with the GFS but maybe slightly faster meaning,,slightly further up the coast near Sarasota for landfall on Saturday night as a CAT 3...this is a significant jump...but again like I said before,,,the runs will change and they could move again....right now I agree that there will be a strong mid-level low over the great lakes this weekend.,,,,so I dont see this going any further N then Florida (as of now) but until this thing starts its NW course,,it could still just meander down there.
Anyways the threat to florida has now greatly increased with the NOGAPS shifting greatly to the east. We wont know for sure on anything until weds.