18Z GFS has shifted back to the right again through 84 hours, with the center of Wilma passing over the western tip of Cuba. After that, the track is similar to the previous run, taking the storm NE over the Keys and south FL.

Exactly how this storm approaches the Gulf (if it does at all) and how quickly it makes a possible turn to the NE will have an impact on its intensity when it potentially threatens Florida. First of all, if it brushes the Yucutan or Cuba, it is more likely to weaken somewhat than if it shoots through the Yucutan channel. If it makes more of a gradual bend to the NE, it will track farther north, spending more time over increasingly cool water in an environment of increasing wind shear. If it makes a sharp turn to the E, it will impact sooner and further south, where the shear will be somewhat less. Occasionally, you will see storms undergo a baroclinically enhanced intensification as they are captured by a mid-level system. Such intensification is usually temporary, but if it makes a quick southern landfall after turning to the NE, that may be a factor as well. Obviously, other factors will have an impact on intensity as well, such as any eyewall-replacement cycles that may occur if the system becomes very strong over the NW Carribbean.