Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 17 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

Quote:

[it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast



Well, getting it right once in 48hrs is not bad I suppose..




Maybe so. Whether it continues to turn toward the WNW, NW, and ultimately North is another question. The 2315z IR image appears to be misaligned on the NRL floater, or else the system jumped south and significantly west in 30 minutes, which I find hard to believe. SSD floater has not updated with 2315z image yet.

Edit: The new computer model runs are up at WU it appears. BAMM, GFDL, and GFS all show landfall along the west coast of the peninsula, ranging from Tampa to Key West.

Of note: WALA Fox 10 (Mobile) weather guy said of Wilma something like "it's not in our forecast". That's true right now, but it's very disconcerting for a meteorologist to be sounding the "all clear" this early, when lots of things could change.

Edit 2: SSD has now updated with 2315z images and they show no further southward movement, so NRL's image is just misaligned apparently.




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