typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 17 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

Quote:

newest recon indicates a ragged eyewall has formed:
October 17, 2005 21:32:50 Zulu
L. OPEN W
M. E05/18/8
RAGGED EYE WALL
15.77° N 79.88°
winds still aren't very high... but it's getting it's act together.




At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
. In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.




What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?



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