It's difficult to tell if there is any movement right now or not, since the VIS images are no longer available. This is still a tropical storm, so it isn't necessarily a given that the center is anchored in the middle of the convection. In the last hour, it seems to have shrugged off some old convection to the west and redeveloped new convection near the last center fix, so it still may not be moving much at all.

As far as possible intensity for a Florida landfall, the best rule of thumb right now would probably be to expect a system one category less intense than whatever it maxes out as (if it maxes out as cat 4, expect cat 3, maxes out at cat 3, expect cat 2, etc.). There is still some uncertainty there, though... it remains to be seen exactly how much shear will materialize in the Gulf in the path of the storm, assuming it gets there in the first place. Increasing SW flow aloft will not necessarily result in rapidly increasing shear if the storm quickly turns to the NE. The 18Z GFDL run weakens Rita as it passes over western Cuba, but does not weaken it much at all affer that over the Gulf until landfall.