Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 17 2005 10:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

Well we have tonights 00z runs then tomorrows 12z then the main runs start with the NOAA plane to see if there are any changes,,,00z runs tomorrow night and then on.



So basically another 24 hours of models that are probably going to be inconsistent (based upon the models of the last 2 days), and thus unreliable? Why not send a plane in sooner and get more reliable models sooner?

ETA:
The 0215z IR4 image looks rather... weird. After several hours of consecutively better organization appearing, the 0215z image looks... well, I think it looks weird. The CDO, which was very circular earlier, is.... square! Is dry air pinching Wilma again? The WV image doesn't indicate so, but I can't figure out why it looks square right now

UPDATE! 11pm is out.... 65mph winds, and it has finally turned! Moving due west at an incredible TWO mph!
5 day forecast calls for the circulation center to be just off the coast of Florida.


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