Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.




Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.

Edit: Well, the discussion is out now. Interesting tidbit:
As is often the case... however... the
models greatly disagree on how sharply Wilma will turn and how fast
it will move after recurvature. Most of the models are now much
faster after recurvature... but the new official forecast will only
be adjusted part of the way between the previous advisory and the
latest dynamical model consensus. Conditions appear conducive for
steady strengthening while Wilma remains in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea... and it still appears probable that Wilma will
become a major hurricane. Thereafter... increasing shear should
halt intensification and begin to induce gradual weakening... but
not enough to weaken Wilma beneath hurricane intensity within the
five-day time frame.