| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:24 PM |
Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
|
Quote:
The northwest turn has been sooner than forecast, I think. What does this mean? Possibly nothing. CNN was spouting off about "the westerlies" this morning, saying that when a hurricane gets into the northern GOM, it turns east because of the westerlies. Tell the people of New Orleans about "the westerlies". In this case, the computer models are forecasting an east turn by Wilma, but it's because of a trough. Troughs are common this time of year, certainly, but to say that storms generally turn east in the GOM is at best stretching the truth, and closer to an outright lie, if you leave off the climatology behind it (troughs), which he did.
Of course, my head hurts so that might effect my judgement this morning.
:?:
Gotta love the media. They do it all the time, telling half-truths and whole lies. The westerlies are obviously not in the gulf all the time like you pointed out with Katrina.
However, the shift to the north and east you mentioned may just be a wobble of the center as is continues to come together. Also, since convection is continously firing up and dying off, that can give a false sense of movement. We need a longer term view to really say for sure, but if it is going to turn NE early it will be a good thing for us in Florida!