Well, almost all GOM storms take a turn to the east just prior to landfall, so there's another "out" for a sweeping generalization like the media is known for.

Being further north and west would usually translate to a slower turn than depicted and a potential landfall further north (and further north on the crossing as well). Of course, that's an over-simplification, but something to sit on.

The NHC will probably take a few liberties with moving the 4th and 5th day points, but they traditionally try very hard to maintain consistency on their track. Don't expect an major change to the track unless something big happens to the models.

Also, I should have expounded upon my claiming the storm. I played soccer from the time I was 6 until I was 20 - many of those years were spent on multiple teams with simultaneous schedules (I drove my mom mad when I had 3 team's schedules that I needed supporting). My last competitive game was played about 12 years ago. Since that time, I've played many pickup/friendly games, but not with any degree of consistency. About 6 months ago I played every Friday night and after 2 months or so I moved. I had mentioned to a guy I played with that I was in the market to play again. He tried to get someone in touch with me, but that faded away until last week. I got a call from a local 1st Division men's team that was in need of my position. So my game last weekend was actually my first competitive game in a decade. It took a little to get into my groove, but I didn't do badly at all. This upcoming weekend is the last chance for me to "earn" my spot on the team before the season begins the following week. So, I figure there's 12 years of planning all hinging on my playing and playing well in less than a week - right about the time when good ol' Wilma should be soaking our already innundated fields.

Yeah - I'm going to keep taking the blame on this one because it feels right

Of course, I'm not scared of playing in a little (or lot) of rain, so bring it on!*

*so long as that "lot" of rain isn't heralded by 100+mph winds