But that's a model.

However there is a very real concern for a very strong hurricane to form, which means even if it loses strength before landfall, as it undoubtably would, it could still be very strong (a warning NHC tried to convey about Katrina before landfall).

Following the NHC trail of breadcrumbs from this morning...

My earlier post (6:30am-ish) I observed that the 5am discussion was setting up the 11am for warning of major hurricane status. Look at the 11am disc, a lot about strengthening (Franklin cracked me up again). Now...check the forecast track points against the HHC...a straight shot right through the warmest deepest waters left in the Caribbean, and onward through the loop current. Finally a quote from Max M on CNN early this am: "If it goes through the Yucatan Channel, there won't be much to weaken it," Mayfield said. And, also, "People in the Gulf Coast are going to have to watch Wilma."

So I think we're definitely talking about a very good probability for more than Cat 3, something that could sustain enough strength to be a major hurricane at landfall. Early Thursday morning, once Wilma gets above 19.5N, is about when the fun will begin. Could be continued strengthening right into Friday, even if she clips Cuba's flat western tip. And while we've seen how storms can weaken dramatically from their peak strength in the hours before hitting the coastline (Dennis, Katrina), that isn't the kind of thing you want to bet the farm (or house) on. That is to say, it would be too late to leave in the possible eventuality that things turned out for the worst, even though it isn't that likely.

We know forecasting intensity at any specific point in the track is not possible more than a day or so out, and we know from Emily that very strong hurricanes can suddenly stutter and drop in intensity, with no explanation. However we can't count on that happening, but have to anticipate the strongest possible likely outcome.

That is the key thing. True, it's likely going to hit in the GOM somewhere, once they get in there they can't usually get out without hitting somewhere, and we won't be able to narrow it down where Wilma's going for another 48 hours. But we can see, starting today, the potential for a strong hurricane to make landfall, not a Cat 1 or 2.