Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Oct 18 2005 01:49 PM
Re: Westward motion more than NW?

The link below shows the forecast points and heading for the 12Z GFDL:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM

It looks like model picks up on the increase in forward speed and more western movement that seems to be occurring right now. Interpolating between data points, the model suggests that landfall will be between 108-114 hours, with a forward speed of around 20 knots. Even though upper level SW flow will be increasing, it does not appear from the model output I have seen that the environmental shear will be very high in the Gulf until you get north of the Tampa area.


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