wilma is moving, putting the storm a little ahead of schedule. i have a very bad idea about what is going to happen based on some trends i'm seeing in the model runs. a lot of the globals are now developing a coastal low north of wilma as the storm nears and crosses florida... this being an artefact of the cut off low currently crossing the middle of the country. as this cut off low nears the east coast, it is forecast to be intercepted by and deepened by shortwave energy from the the mid latitudes, and move into a position near the great lakes by late in the weekend. pretty much all of the models are shunting wilma east of the u.s. and way out into the atlantic... except for nogaps and suggestions by the canadian, which shows wilma AS the coastal low. this would imply that the storm phases in ahead of the deepening cutoff and accelerates up the coast. hold the phone... new euro is showing this solution as well. yeah, i'm gonna chunk the gfs unphased solution... gfs gets these tropical to mid-latitude energy transfers wrong all the time. last night the models were showing a flatter mid-latitude pattern and slower system... today we've got the models showing their arrival along the eastern seaboard better timed. watch for these solutions, as they show additional trouble along the east coast as the storm blasts up the coast... a distance off hatteras but right in on cape cod and maine. this could carry a great deal of tropical moisture north for new england and the canadian maritimes... and add a second impact from the storm as a transitional system around monday-tuesday... after what looks to be a substantial hit on florida saturday-sunday.
just out of hardheadedness i'll keep the high strike window from sarasota to naples. will trim the northern edge of the overall window from crystal river.. and take the keys off (don't buy the gfs). so make that chokoloskee to crystal river, with a highest prob near the area charley hit last year. i do think this storm will be cat 2-cat 3 at landfall, and have a large envelope... i.e. swath of high winds and rains will probably encompass most of the peninsula. my dad is going to be in polk county to see family thursday-sunday... i'm keeping him appraised of the visitor on the way... and think his sunday morning flight out of orlando may not be going anywhere.
will just add this since i've got a hunch it will turn out right... pattern the gfs shows has a strong subtropical ridge building over the central atlantic during the next few days. this should actually allow westward-moving wave energy to run in brief, summer-reminiscent pattern... there is development indicated in the caribbean late in the month, so we may have another system nearing wilma's current position 10-12 days later. whether it can develop or not is tough to say at this point.. synoptically the pattern looks great, but getting enough of a wave together this time of year is a stretch. there may be a pattern-pulse type effect that causes one to appear out of nothing. i'd put money on us seeing a greek alphabet storm before the month is out.
HF 1827z18october