She's been forecasted to move west some before heading north then making that right hand turn...I believe some of the early modeling was even calling for further into Yucatan before the hard right into Fl.

History shows the majority of storms that form there this time of year do go into Fl...a half dozen or so have gone to mexico though so it isn't far-fetched that it could happen.

Tomorrow & Thurs will give a much better idea although some would say short notice...hence the continuation of the Bear watch for the Fl west coast.