As all the Met/Mods and lots of here will tell you...DON'T DEPEND TOO MUCH ON THE MODELS! While they are great for giving you a general idea, they are not exact and often change from one run to the next. NHC is the BEST source for information you need to help make any decisions. NHC has done a bang up job this crazy season and there is absolutely no reason NOT to listen to them above all else. Lots of what is posted here (myself included at times) is simply conjecture we come up with with what limited knowledge/training we have (with the exception of the METS ofcourse)