Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Oct 18 2005 03:48 PM
Re: Just some thought....yea right...

Quote:


Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."



Well...where? An unqualified statement like that doesn't mean much taken out of context.

Right now there are only a few specific places with warm deep water to support heavy duty intensification, and of course other factors are involved, and if Wilma goes there (which is getting more questionable as the afternoon wears on, which I'm really sorry about seeing as how I was the one who brought the intensity issue to the forefront), then she can probably only go downhill from there, even travelling at a fast speed.

So, roughly speaking, the max intensity at landfall is going to be based on how far Wilma intensifies before leaving the area N of Cuba for points east. If she's a monster, then there'a a chance of a major hurricane at landfall on the FL peninsula. If she's a Cat 3, then probably a Cat 2 at landfall.

Also of note -- the 5am and 8am advis/disc talk about the chance for Wilma to become an "intense" hurricane. However the 11am and 2pm talk about the chance for Wilma to become a "major" hurricane, and no longer mention the word intense. Someone please decode the NHC lingo for me. What are they saying? Is this an indication that Wilma won't get as strong as they thought at 5am (it would seem so), or vice versa?

Generally the NHC will use intense and major interchangeably. With more confidence in it becoming a major hurricane now, they will explicitly use that terminology instead of intense, which is sort of an oxymoron when it comes to hurricanes anyway -- they are all intense. Just my thoughts. --Clark



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