Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Oct 18 2005 08:18 PM
Re: Just some thought....yea right...

Just a bit here from NWS MLB AFD this afternoon

FORECAST DEPENDANT UPON UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. TRACK SCENARIOS RANGE FROM NE MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY OF 2004 FROM SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANVERAL/DAYTONA...TO
ENE MOVEMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA. MOVEMENT WILL BE
DICTATED FOR THE MOST PART BY APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. IF
TROUGH IS SHARP...TC MOTION SHOULD BE MORE NE-WARD...WHILE BROADER
AMPLITUDE/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ENE-WARD
TRACK. AT THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO / NHC FORECAST...IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...ENTERING PENINSULA ALONG SE
COAST...PASSING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND EXITING ALONG SOUTHEAST
COAST. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION
OF THE TC AS IT APPROACHES/REACHES THE STATE. THUS...DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL...SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY...I.E. 6 HOUR MOVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST COAST. THAT
SAID...ANY WEAKENING OF TC INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY BE COMPENSTATED
FOR BY FAST FORWARD MOTION...WITH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND
AND COASTAL WIND EVENT FOR AREAS NORTH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF LAND AND MARINE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. EVENT IMPACT IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS AWAY...SO
MUCH CAN CHANGE...STAY TUNED.



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