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Just a bit here from NWS MLB AFD this afternoon FORECAST DEPENDANT UPON UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC WILMA. TRACK SCENARIOS RANGE FROM NE MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO TC CHARLEY OF 2004 FROM SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANVERAL/DAYTONA...TO ENE MOVEMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA. MOVEMENT WILL BE DICTATED FOR THE MOST PART BY APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. IF TROUGH IS SHARP...TC MOTION SHOULD BE MORE NE-WARD...WHILE BROADER AMPLITUDE/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ENE-WARD TRACK. AT THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO / NHC FORECAST...IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...ENTERING PENINSULA ALONG SE COAST...PASSING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND EXITING ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF THE TC AS IT APPROACHES/REACHES THE STATE. THUS...DURATION OF POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL...SIMILAR TO TC CHARLEY...I.E. 6 HOUR MOVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST COAST. THAT SAID...ANY WEAKENING OF TC INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY BE COMPENSTATED FOR BY FAST FORWARD MOTION...WITH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND AND COASTAL WIND EVENT FOR AREAS NORTH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF LAND AND MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. EVENT IMPACT IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS AWAY...SO MUCH CAN CHANGE...STAY TUNED. |