Not always -- pressure is a good measure of intensity, but is not always directly correlated to wind speed. The environmental pressures are lower-than-normal in the NW Caribbean, making the pressure gradient between Wilma and its environment weaker/flatter, lending itself to at least somewhat lower winds. Normally, however, 970mb would be indicative of a cat 2 hurricane -- we just don't have any data to support near that sort of intensity right now, though.

Wilma's a larger storm overall than Charley, but with a similarly small inner core. Rapid fluctuations in intensity are possible both up and down as the outer core evolves; any tightening of that outer core would likely bring about both a period of enhanced intensification as well as a greater resileiency to negative effects in the Gulf due to shear. An impact similar to Charley is possible, but I do not think this storm will be strengthening up to landfall, merely holding its own. I do expect it to peak at least as a major hurricane, if not a category 4 storm, as it evolves over the next two-three days.

Landfall region from two days ago of between Cedar Key and Naples still looks okay, though I'd probably shift that further south to New Port Richey to the Keys. I do anticipate this making landfall in some part of the state of Florida and not skirting through the Fl. Straits. Wave impact, due to the intensity of the storm and its fast forward speed, could be higher than expected -- and certainly much larger than the unique scenario presented by Charley last year. Some models are calling for 18ft waves on the east side of the storm; for the populated areas along the coast, hopefully those are either not realized or felt only in the relatively unpopulated areas of the Everglades.

You'll hear a lot of comparisons between this and Charley over the coming days. Some will be valid, others will not. Separate the two and you'll probably have a good idea as to what this storm can/will do later this week into the weekend. Be wary of the hype from the news media, particularly in the Tampa region...they mean well but sometimes take it too far. That's not to say no one should be prepared, however, anywhere from the Apalachicola area all the way around the coast to Jacksonville...and then further up the coast into New England for whatever a transitioning TC might bring in a week's time.