Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Oct 18 2005 08:56 PM
Re: Vortex message

It's too early to assess the possible tornado threat, but this particular scenario (hurricane moving NE in relatively strong SW flow) is more favorable for hurricane-spawned tornadoes than some of the previous storms this season, because the storms that would form in the outer bands would be in an environment of greater wind shear with the increasing SW flow aloft. Hurricanes don't like wind shear, but tornadoes need it to form. Even if the shear over Wilma itself isn't that strong (which is possible), the shear for the storms rotating around Wilma's circulation would be fairly strong, particularly in the NE quadrant.

There are other aspects of tornado formation which are simply impossible to predict this far in advance. If there is a huge swath of rain well ahead of the system, then the atmosphere will be more stable and less conducive for tornado formation, but if there are peaks of sun between the outer bands, that would increase the available instability. Nobody should be overly alarmed by the tornado threat right now, but it is always a potential hazard with hurricanes.



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