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This is the "intensity" part from the 5pm Discussion: WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS. I think it's worth mentioning that what FlaMommy posted from Dick Fletcher's Tampa Bay's 10 Weather site is noted in this discussion. What's also worth mentioning is that they are not calling for any rapid weakening before landfall...sometimes what they don't say is more important than what they DO say. No major shift in track at this time...concentrating on the southern half of Florida. |