Just about to post on this myself...well, there you go. Now they mention Cat 4 for the first time. The way they map everything out in each succeeding discussion is really an art. They are not changing the track (to come up more to the west, near the tip of the Yucatan, like some of the models), and all the stuff I posted earlier applies. They think she'll take that path that goes over the warmest pools of water. Also Franklin mentioned the dry air.

Since Wilma is moving faster than this morning, she's going to reach the first pool of warm water (at about 20N) sooner than I thought - by tomorrow evening. NHC has her at a Cat 3 just before she gets there. The slightly more west track does take her to the west of some of the warmer water, but she'll still hit the main pool and also the warm water north of Cuba, if she stays on the NHC track.