Good heavens. I leave for home a 6pm and get home about 7:15, grab something to eat, console kitty, run to the computer, and find a dramatic drop in pressure, and a very striking CDO. The symmetry of the bands in the 23:15Z is beautiful (on WV), with two symmetric commas of cold cloudtops in the CDO (I had to zoom in and keep looking at it!), and the jump in the size of convection from 22:45Z to 23:45Z is amazing.

Now the compactness of the central core, with the dry air partially separating it from the feeder bands, becomes an advantage, and it can quickly turn into a small buzzsaw of a storm. Wonder if pressure is still dropping like a rock.

Well this throws off my analysis. If she's going to ramp up this fast now, I expect an ERC to throw a wrench in the works by the time she gets to the deeper warm water tomorrow.