Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Oct 18 2005 08:40 PM
Re: Accuweather Post

Wilma is certainly going to town right now, but I'm not sure how long it will last. There is still dry air lurking to the north, and the outflow still seems restricted somewhat to the west. The eye is so small that it could come apart rather quickly if it falters. I guess we'll find out in the next few hours.

Considering that this is still at least 4 days away from potential landfall in Florida, there could be several cycles in intensity between now and then. Whatever Wilma peaks at when this cycle of intensification is over, it will very likely come down some from that at least temporarily. Subsequent cycles in intensity will likely occur after that, but predicting the details of those is pretty much impossible.

As it usually does after a storm commences rapid intensification, the latest SHIPS guidance has gone berserk, bringing Wilma to 129 knots by 48 hours and maintaining most of that intensity until landfall:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR



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