Wilma is rapidly intensifying tonight, not unlike that seen with Charley last year. After my previous post, I took a look at some of the microwave imagery -- the infrared imagery implies that the actual core of the system is much larger than in actuality. The microwave data further confirms the tight inner-core structure of Wilma, something that both lends itself to rapid intensification and rapid weakening. The eyewall is likely relatively stable right now, lending itself to another 12hr or so of strengthening. The 12z GFDL prediction of a 932mb central pressure at 12z Wednesday is turning out to not be that far off; if anything, right now I think it might be a tad conservative.

It is important to emphasize two things: one, I do not anticipate this storm becoming as strong as Rita or Katrina, though the possibility is there. I do anticipate it to become a category 4 hurricane, potentially by the 11a advisory tomorrow or sooner. Two, I do not anticipate this storm being nearly this strong at landfall in Florida. More like, we're looking at somewhere near the intensity of Ivan, or about 125mph, at landfall. Increasing shear will have a greater impact upon this type of storm than it would normally, particularly for an accelerating one like this one is projected to be.

Interests in the NE US should watch this one too. While it is projected to head into the Atlantic and pass between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda, some of the models are suggesting that the storm may turn back more toward the north and phase with the upper-level pattern, resulting in a very, very intense area of low pressure somewhere between the northeast US and Canadian Maritimes. The latest ECMWF projection shows 952mb over Caribou in about a week...probably on the high end, but for a transitioning storm and the intensity of the projected trough, not out of the realm of possibility. For now, just something to watch; notably, the GFS is much weaker and further east with this scenario.

Summary -- cat 4 sometime tomorrow, cat 3 at landfall (NHC path looks good from this end, maybe a touch further north), potential for a significant extratropical cyclone in about a week's time.

More later.