danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Oct 18 2005 10:00 PM
Earlier (18Z) Models

Examples of how the differences in the models.
Excerpts from the:

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 (edited~danielw)

VALID OCT 18/1200 UTC THRU OCT 22/0000 UTC

...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
......HRCN WILMA...

THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET SOLNS OVERALL SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY AND HAVE MORE SIMILAR TRACKS WITH WILMA THRU DAY 3. BOTH OF THESE MDLS SHOW WILMA TRACKING OFF THE WRN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE DAY 3.
THE 00Z HI-RES ECMWF IS NOT TOO DIFF BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS BUT SHOWS A RATHER SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE SAME TIME PD OTHERWISE.
THE NAM IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER ONCE AGAIN WITH A TRACK WELL TO THE LEFT AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS.
PLS SEE LATEST NHC FCST DISC FOR ADDITIONAL TRACK INFORMATION AND
GUIDANCE.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml



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