Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 18 2005 10:03 PM
Re: Another Look

Depends on how they "combine".

Two things can happen, basically....

The two lows could "merge", forming a much stronger single impulse of energy. This is the scenario that most of the global models seem to be favoring, and it would tend to drive the storm further east, thereby leading to a more southerly impact point and, once it has exited from the peninsula, reduce the risk of a "part II" event in the Northeast US.

I see this as rather unlikely, just from the relative motions of the two features, the WV imagery, and the upper level atmospheric support. I won't call it "impossible", but I'm not buying it, particularly since some of the models, most notably the 18Z GFDL, completely miss the southern feature that is obviously present at this time!

What I see as more likely is an "amplification" scenario, where the first trough gets here and sets up roughly at the MS/AL border and then the second amplifies and drives it further south and eastward, possibly even to the extent of inverting it somewhat. This would tend to promote more of a poleward as opposed to eastward motion, as there would be a more poleward "tilt" to the trough axis.

That scenario would tend to run the storm more of a NNE track than NE or ENE - that is, a more northward impact point.

SMALL changes in heading with a storm paralleling the coast make for big differences in exactly where it goes in, as we saw last year with Charlie.......



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