Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Oct 19 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane

That would be a good scenario! As far as the other models being consistent in keeping it further south, keep in mind that sometimes they do not pick up on the speed or strength of the other players ... like the ones we are talking about tonight. If the A98E is the only one doing that, that's an outlier.
I believe Denis Phillips said we will know by tomorrow whether the two features in the Western US will combine. That's when we will a *pretty* good idea of what's to come down the road.
The models are only as good as what information is put into them...some don't pick up features, some overstrengthen them, some understrengthen them. That's why it's usually two days out before we have good idea of where the general area of landfall will be.



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