I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.

Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the NHC have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.

It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.

We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.