| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:43 AM |
Re: Another Look
|
Quote:
I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.
Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the NHC have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.
We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.
Some interesting observations regarding the models:
GFDL,
12z position at 126 hours: 74W/32N
18z position at 114 hours: 75.5W/32.25N
…at first glance I too would be inclined to suggest that although this represents a left shift once leaving Florida, it may be too subtle to distinguish any significance. However, it is the overall synopsis from the Great Lakes to NNE of New England that may lend a clue.
…Which requires observing the Global models.. They have been trending deeper with trough amplification in near the upper Ohio Valley to where we now have a -3SD anomaly centered on PA, which also has an embedded potent s/w negatively tilted (ECM 12z run). This is interesting for me after Wilma crosses Florida.. Another meteorologist who uses this site and I were hammering out the details and it appeared to us that the veering components of the winds near and off-shore the East Coast are not etched in stoned and if anything have been trending more S in time… In fact, the 12z ECM actually fully captures Wilma and rockets her N as a transitioning hybrid monster, crossing her over Cape Cod, Down East Maine, to a 952mb low N of Caribou. … That would be a huge problem for SE Massachusetts and Down East Maine in the form of a odd-ball Nor’easter from heck! It’s an unusual scenario, admittedly, but not too implausible at this time. What is also lending confidence is that this was intuitively plausible for basic synoptic reasoning (also incorporating teleconnectors) a few day ago, so seeing a few whiffs of model guidance trending this way is a bit alarming to say the least.
I also agree with your cat-5 intimation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
…Having said that I am sure many of you are aware that the dropsondes for synoptic sampling have taking place and are expected to be initialized in the data suite in tonight’s 00z run – do out any moment.. It will be interesting to see how the samples affect the runs; however, they are obviously not intended to indicated anything about how Wilma interacts with the westerlies, just that she may end up with a greater left component near Florida … Which of course would then have to be conserved farther N should the trough in question continue to trend deeper, veering winds more S.