scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Oct 19 2005 12:58 AM
Re: Another Look

OMG 175kts now at 1245am,,4mile eye??? Even for me thats incredible and never seen before.... that much of a pressure drop in 12 hrs of about 70mbs and winds at the surface near 160mph.....

You never know how much a pressure is unless the plane happens to go in at the right time....so such storms in the past there were near this level,,we only knew what the recon and sat said,,..I guess the plane went in the right time..

Anyways the 0z models are in and pretty much the same,,,,Nogaps inland near Sarasota...GFS Naples,, Same for CMC ( but that model has odd shifts in it ) Ill tend to see the GFDL...New data went into the runs,,,guess that helped out during the first 48hrs,, so we know that it will move close to Cancun,,,then when the next flight goes in again tomorrow afternoon,,,tomorrow nights 0z runs will be important for the Gulf movement..

Thing on the GFS though,,,its really slow especially during the 60-84hr time frame,,,,I think it will go slightly further N if it does go near Cancun like the models show the first 60 hrs,....



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