| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:11 AM |
Re: scary nogaps
|
Quote:
if you want the scary scenario that i'm thinking is realistic for wilma in the long term (i.e., it phases with the westerlies ahead of the deep trough progged over the great lakes and stays baroclinically powerful as it recurves), check out the 00z nogaps. that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october
Hi.. You and I have been hammering this out for days now and I too have made light of this potential in earlier posts. The only reason I say that is that with every run of global origin that is paving this route we get more uneasy because it fits well with a intuitive synoptic reasoning from almost a week ago! Anyway, the 12z ecm was impressive too; which you brought my attention to... (Figures, the one model I didn't look at today - d'oh). Anyway, that's a destructive Nor'easter in the ECM - again, well teleconnected.
The other thing about the NOGAPs, which offers disconcerting vibes... It is typically progressivity biased and doesn't like to latch onto meridinal events... Hm.. Strange to see it bite first?