Wilma isn't the only thing changing this morning. Here is an excerpt from the Tampa NWS AFD...just out.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 241 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)
WILMA HAS UNDERGONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE RAPID DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE!

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE POINTING OUT THE DETAILS...WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN TIMING AND SUBTLE CHANGES IN TRACK OF WILMA. IN GENERAL...MOST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL COMPLEX UPR FEATURES...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE ALL PLAYERS IN THE TRACK OF WILMA AND STILL THINK WE MAY SEE SOME MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES...

THUS OUR CWA...ESP SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...IS STILL POTENTIALLY IN THE THICK OF THINGS AND NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD DOWN. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS WILMA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SW FL (NEAR NAPLES) SAT EVE.

this AFD is Tampa's diagnosis of forecast weather. AFDs are updated around 4 times a day. And doesn't mean that Wilma will do exactly what's in the discussion. Just like all weather...wait 30 minutes and it will change~danielw

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KTBW.html