if anybody is wondering what the labor day hurricane might have looked like... there's probably your answer. i'll reuse the analogy that wilma is a midget super hurricane embedded in a large tropical storm. it shouldn't be able to maintain that profile--i'd expect to eyewall cycles result in a much weaker but broader wind field over the next day or so. there's just no way that structure can hold up for long. thelittle inner core has really been zipping around inside the center... i guess it's easy to make cycloidal loops when the pinhole eye is only 2-5 miles wide.
down the road gfdl has brought the terminal track off the northeast well left, now showing a solid hit on the maine coast. will be telling if the nogaps still has the storm impacting new england. the 00z euro actually sent it further out to sea as it has it loitering an extra day in the caribbean and not catching the early trough connection.
the forecast modeling in the short term is clustering on a more south florida track, in particular the naples area. i'm going to keep my window north of there for now, but the early consensus has come together a bit south of where i was expecting. very sharp recurvatures like the one depicted aren't uncommon in the historical database, so there is a precedence for what is shown.
the saturday-monday period looks to be a historic one in terms of hurricane impact.
HF 1413z19october