doug
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Oct 19 2005 02:32 PM
Re: wilma freakshow

We won't know the real window until it makes its first move NE'wrd. A local met said wisely it is really a matter of hours, in that an hour or two difference makes a huge difference on land fall in this instance because once it goes it will come to the coast like a watermelon seed being shot out between your fingers..
so if the turn is delayed an hour for example..it could eat up about 30 miles of coast line. The point is the entire cone is under the gun in about 80-90 hours, and any reasonable certainty in land fall will be ascertained probably on Thursday Morning.
This is just a very dynamic situation and all the parts have not fallen into place yet. I am not sure even these latest runs have fully factored in the intensity changes in the storm; one would think they had...but...how long the storm keeps the intensity will also impact what is approaching from the west. So later runs will keep refining this.
Also the steering ahead of the trough looks pretty steep South to North to me, so that while Wilma may be pushed generally eastward it will be travelijng more northward at the same time or a NE rather than ENE turn is possible. Again intensity at the time of convergence will be a factor here.
All points along the coast probably from Pinellas/ Pasco south should be ready to move quickly.



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