The one thing that Katrina, Rita, and Wilma have in common was the incredibly fast intensification. In all cases, this seems to have taken both the NHC and the very smart people on this board by surprise. It seems like yesterday, y'all were saying "maybe this will be a Cat 3" and then within 12 hours it is a Cat 5 monster. I remember the same surprising run-up with Rita. So...why is it that the intensification models and all of the experts were so wrong?

This should not be taken as a slight on the models or experts, I'll repeat that I am in awe of the NHC's ability to get the cone "right" 3 or even 5 days out for these unpredictable forces of nature...but they seem to be off in predicting intensity.