Looking at the WV loop it appears that the "connection" between the Alaska low and the one over what was the NV/CA line is not going to happen.

The CA/NV low is moving ENE, and is now over central Colorado. The ridging looks pretty weak and getting weaker - the forecast for it to collapse looks to be verifying.

The second impulse of energy is now over roughly Oregon, and is clearly not going to "catch" the first one. So the "merged trough" scenario looks like its down the chute, and we're going to get amplification - as I expected - instead.

The models have responded to this by turning Wilma more towards the north after it exits the peninsula, with the "endpoint" of the most recent GFDL run now impacting squarely on the Maine coast, and 100kt winds just off the coast at impact (!) This forecast predicts tropical storm force winds from basically Mobile all the way up the atlantic seaboard starting at 00Z on the 23rd.

I still think the track is perhaps a bit south - but not by much. I also believe that given the evolving pattern above there is a significant risk of a "raking" storm that runs up the seaboard while remaining offshore, eventually phasing with the front and producing a hellacious coastal storm event in the Northeast.

The big story on this one may not be the impact on Florida - although that certainly looks to be significant - it may be what happens up the seaboard a couple of days later......