Not necessarily.

That's the common logic, but its not necessarily correct.

The more important factor is the shape of the trough that will steer Wilma to the North and East. If the amplification REALLY cranks and produces an inverted trough at the outset, you'd get a very much poleward motion. On the other extreme, a "flat" trough would tend to produce a nearly-eastward motion.

Neither is likely - what's more likely is what the GFDL seems to have latched onto, which is a normally-shaped trough that gets amplified and approaches inversion towards the end of the forecast period, "capturing" the system. This leads to a near-due-north track at the impact in Maine.

The problem here is that small changes in the shape of the trough and in the exact time when the amplification comes in make for huge differences with this storm because it is going to be moving so fast and as such this interaction is going to be very, very hard to forecast with accuracy. As a result if you're off by a few hours you could see a 50nm - or more - move in terms of where it goes in along Florida, and a 100nm or more difference in the track up the eastern seaboard! This could make the difference, for instance, between an impact at Maine and one on Long Island.

By this point I'd usually be making some kind of call within ~50nm, with a three to four-day window before expected approach. In this case I am nowhere near confident enough to do that, and the NHC appears to be equally concerned, along with various emergency planners. This is why they're kicking tourists out of the Keys - it COULD go that far south - and those people as far north as Cedar Key need to be paying attention, because it COULD come up that far.

My personal belief, given the WV and expected pattern evolution is that somewhere between Sarasota and Tampa is the most likely path, but I could easily be wrong on this one, and were I in the Keys I'd be getting out now. Were I anywhere from Clearwater south I'd be ready to go, with shutters ready to go up and the truck locked and loaded, so that if it looks to be coming my way I can run on 6 hours notice.

I don't think anyone from Cedar Key to the Keys can relax..... it'll likely be Friday before we have a good handle on exactly what the direectional steering is going to look like, and thus, where its going to hit.