Right now the amplitude of the trough seems to be about 40-60 degrees as seen on the WV which shows motion of the atmospphere of the Pacific over Mexico ahead of the trough.
Again it becomes a question of timing. IF one uses say 50 degrees from the NHC forecast point where the turn begins you will see something just south of Sarasota county...near where Accuweather projects and north of the current NHC, But if the strorm turns before that point or after will effect the landfall location accordingly as will the trough amplitude as mentioned above by some one else.
The first time I even encountered a notion that the storm may meander around Yucatan was when Bastardi noted it had 10% chance of doing that
That is actually the first non CONUS strike case made here or anywhere in over two days. And now some of you are noting the infamous GFDL doing that too. HMMMM!
Only if Wilma does not get to Cancun on time.