|
|
|||||||
Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG: EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS GREATEST. TRACK OF WILMA HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR WILMA WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY 06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WILMAS DEPARTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE ...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO ITS INTENTIONS. |