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Hold the Phone folks: Something has to be BAD WRONG:

EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ALONG ATL
SEABOARD...UNFORTUNATELY WHERE IMPACT FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS IS
GREATEST. TRACK OF WILMA HAS PROVEN TO BE A CHALLENGE...WITH 15Z
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY PUT INTO THE DARK SHADOW OF
THE 12Z GFS. MORNING UPDATE FOR WILMA WAS INFLUENCED HEAVILY BY
06Z GFS...WHICH SHOWED ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE UP AND AROUND ERN
PERIPHERY OF VORTEX CLOSING OFF OVER GREAT LAKES. DAY 5 POINT WAS
CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND THAN EARLIER OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN FINAL MANUAL PROGS. BUT ALONG
CAME THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SLOWED WILMAS DEPARTURE FROM THE
SUBTROPICS TREMENDOUSLY. FURTHERMORE...WHOLE ORIENTATION OF UPPER
TROF OVER ERN US LOOKS DIFFERENT ON LATEST GFS...WITH MORE OF A N
TO S AXIS VS W TO E FROM THE 00Z RUN. DECISION TO USE 00Z GFS FOR
THE PRELIM PROGS WAS BASED LARGELY ON ITS GOOD CONTINUITY AND
STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO ITS ENSMEAN...WHICH STILL SOUND ATTRACTIVE
...ESP IN LIGHT OF MORE RECENT MODEL VOLATILITY. SO...COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET WAS TO STICK WITH EARLIER NOTIONS AND HOPE THAT
MODELS SETTLE DOWN ONCE BURGEONING VORTEX MAKES UP ITS MIND AS TO
ITS INTENTIONS.

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