typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Oct 19 2005 02:57 PM
Re: Wilma Continued

On second thought...


"MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...HRCN WILMA...
VRY POOR MDL CONSISTENCY WITH WILDLY VARYING SOLNS SEEN IN THE 12Z
GLOBAL MDL SUITE. THE OVERALL TREND OF A SLOWER MOVING HRCN WILMA
SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN SHRT TERM TRENDS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUE TO BE THE POINT AT WHICH THE STG HEIGHT
FALLS OVR THE E CTRL U.S. PULL THE STORM POLEWARD. THERE HAS BEEN
A TREND WWD IN THE 12Z UKMET/GFS AND NAM SOLNS...BUT THESE MDLS
DIFFER WITH THEIR TIMING. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FARTHER TO THE RIGHT
AND A LITTLE FASTER. PLS SEE LATEST NHC DISC FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WILMA."

...Still, something doesn't seem right about this 12z variant... I just think it's ultimately going to come down to an as yet determine meridianal depth of the trough centered on 80+W, when that finally occurs.. so I agree with them that much. As far as the GFDL interacting with the landmass of NE Coast of Yucatan - this is the first run that has had this behavior and has virtually no support from previous guidance suites - at least, not that far inland..