This is my first post; I've been keeping up with you gurus over the past year, and have been extraordinarily impressed with the bulk of the discussion.

I'm based in Orlando; two hours ago, I believed (like some others) that this storm would continue to track northward and actually hit somewhere between Punta Gorda and Sarasota. The BAMM and GFDL models have given me pause in this previous line of thought. I know that many here believe that this is, perhaps, an aberration in the models, to be corrected in future models. The GFDL alone would have me agreeing. Subsequently, however, the BAMM came into semi-concurrence. Knowing the reliability of GFDL this season, I am seriously wondering if this might pan out, and thus spare Florida (or, at least, western Florida).

Sharpe