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I believe that Wilma is going to remain stationary for a time while she goes through the ERC. I think that during this period she will lose some of her energy and that, by the 11pm, we'll see her as a cat4 150mph hurricane. My reasoning : she will be stationary for some time over somewhat cooler SST's with lower convection. I believe that Wilma will suffer from inertia as she tries to get moving again, exacerbated by the ridging directly to her west. These are purely my observations over the last 12 hours. I have not looked at any models. Since I am new to this and still learning the ropes I would welcome any comments, good or bad. |