Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Oct 19 2005 05:20 PM
Re: Wilma Continued

I think they cultivate the offbeat sense of humor at NHC, and I loved Franklin's way of addressing the craziness of the new model runs:

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY.

THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA

Also of note -- there are two outer eyewalls; not only the eyewall at 10nm, but also one at 45nm.



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