I actually think the latest GFDL model runs are not too far-fetched. Granted, 1650 nautical miles difference between forecast points is crazy. But conditions in the atmosphere have changed rather drastically since the last run.

If you look at the nation's water vapor image, you can see that the strong upper-level low that was supposed to bring Wilma to the north has moved a lot faster and stayed further to the north. It has not moved further to the south as the models expected. I think it is safe to say with high confidence that this particular low will not be having an influence on Wilma.

However, there is another trough that is sagging further to the south, but it is much weaker and it's still very uncertain if that trough will be able to pick up Wilma to the north. It is most likely that it will not make it in time. So, a landfall directly into the Yucatan and then stalling out is not far-fetched at all. Due to these changing upper-level conditions, it may be the most likely scenario.

But, if that trough is able to push it to the north, it will not force the track further north, in fact I believe it will go even further south. Because the storm will not be picking up speed like it was forecasted earlier, once it emerges into the gulf of mexico it will immediately be picked up by that trough and pushed directly East, skirting the northern coast of Cuba and then making a direct pass through the Florida Keys. This WILL be a Southwest (becoming more unlikely) or extreme Southern Florida (becoming more likely) if it is picked up by a trough.

So, there it is folks, in a nutshell. There is still a lot of uncertianity and it all depends on timing. If the trough is not able to make it down in the carribean to pick Wilma up before it makes landfall in the Yucatan, then there won't be much of affect on Florida at all. But it looks like Central Florida will not be dealing with much of an impact. Maybe tropical storm force winds at the worst, but that is highly unlikely in my mind.

I'm Zack by the way, studying Meterology at the University of South Florida.