Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Oct 19 2005 06:01 PM
Re: Wilma Continued

Truthfully, I have found the intensity forecast, and the intensity changes of the last 36 hours to be of overwhelming interest, while understanding that of course the need to resolve the track forecast is critical.

Excluding the wrongly-extrapoloated 900mb pressure for the 2pm advis, it appears that Wilma did likely continue to strengthen beyond the time the 884/881 readings were taken, possibly with additional pressure drops (cloud tops continued to get colder right into the morning hours, showing a dramatic increase in convection). Not only that, but she was able to maintain a very low pressure throughout the morning and afternoon hours, and even the extremely low pressure of 892mb right up to the beginning of the ERC (recon started a third pass right now & is close to the center, and I imagine pressure will finally have risen, looking at the wv imagery).

The small eyewall continued to maintain its integrity for a very long time, even though the few of us still awake after midnight assumed wrongly from the beginning that a 2nm-wide eyewall was not possible to maintain and would implode. Wilma continued in roughly a steady state with an overall pulsing of convection for many hours.

This is all extraordinary, and even though almost 24 hours have passed since intensity started ramping up, I am still going through the day in a bubble of amazement.

I want to reiterate again that I believe that the opportunity exists for another intense round of strengthening (the one I originally had proposed), even with a continued westward trend, into tonight and through tomorrow, depending on how quickly the ERC progresses. If the track turns at all east, back towards Cuba or just north of Cuba, or stalls, the strengthening could continue, between ERCs.


Recon update: still finding powerful winds in the NE quad, on this pass a gust to 143kt.

Latest vortex... still maintaining 892mb, eyewall still closed 4nm, even with temp diff down to 3deg.



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