Yes, by the time it emerges between the eastern tip of the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba, it will be considerably weaker. The NHC calls for it being a Cat 4 at the time, I am going to say it will be a strong Category 3. In the next 12-24 hours, the ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) will be complete. The pinhole eye we are seeing now will collapse and grow larger. During that time, Wilma will begin a weakening trend. It is most likely that by the 11 PM Advisory, Wilma will already be downgraded to a Category 4. At that time, IF (and I put a big emphasis on IF) the storm begins to track to the north and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, it will be encountering shear from the upper-level trough and colder water temperatures. The SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are running about 3-4 degrees cooler than the carribean. So, as it accelerates eastward, it will begin feeling the affects of that shear and weaken rapidly. I'm calling for it to be a strong Category 2/minimal Category 3 intensity if it makes it into the Florida Keys. I just don't see Wilma holding Category 4 intensity for 48-72 hours. The conditions ahead of it are not favorable for that kind development.

However, if it heads directly into the Yucatan, it will be CATASTROPHIC for that area. It won't weaken much if it continues to head in a West Northwest motion.