| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:43 PM |
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
I am trying to see the models ( my amature self) and it seems that they dont take the storm very far at all not even entering the gulf in 96 hours out. Could it be because they were being updated? Does anyone know if the new model runs are in agreeance with eachother?? Do they keep it on a south florida track or yucatan?
No the new model runs have finished updating and that is their track. They have slowed the storm down considerably, due to the fact that the upper-level low that was supposed to dip down into the Gulf and accelerate Wilma North, then northeastward is not going to make it that far south. Due to this change, the models have responded in different ways, with the most reliable model (GFDL) choosing a Yucatan landfall, which is appearing to be the most likely scenario. I see a West Central (Tampa, FL) or Southwest Florida (Naples) landfall becoming more unlikely with this new information, especially West Central Florida.
Bottom line: Keep your eye on it. The forecast is not certain, by any means.