| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 10:45 PM |
Re: Wilma Continued
|
Quote:
After reviewing, I would tend to agree.
New 18Z GFS runs coming out and are almost identical to 12Z, with landfall in SW Florida on Monday.
...For your benifit, the 18z run does not incorporate any new rawinsonde data. It is run of the 6 hour grid values from the previous run; in this case 12z.
...That being said, it becomes very intriguing to me that beyond 120 hours that the GFS has come about 3 degree longitude closer to the New England Coast by 132 hours than the 12z run. It is almost suggestive that something is poisoning the initialization because the physics of the model do not change, just the data. In other words, it cannot even agree with the down wind result when using it's own 6 hour interval for initialization....
...That my friends is significant.