| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 11:27 PM |
Re: Mets, please advise of the impact of this from NCEP
|
Quote:
Despite all the disparity in the forecast models, I really believe that this hurricane could very well be a non-event for the whole Florida pennisula, or it could bypass the pennisula completely and may affect the Keys/Northern Cuba. This is just becoming more and more likely as I am watching the movement of this storm and the upper level winds set up.
EDIT: It has not taken a northerly component in its motion yet, which is worrisome for the folks in the Yucatan pennisula.
Looking at the last several hours of IR imagery, it HAS taken a northerly component in its motion. It's not NW but it's between WNW and NW it appears, at least temporarily. Averaged out over 6 hours it is still WNW.
Looking at the large scale WV loop, I still really believe the trough is going to miss the hurricane. The trough just does not appear to be digging southward. Now, behind that trough is another one, which looks more likely to grab Wilma. The westerlies just aren't visible on WV in the GOM right now but they may still return. Right now the flow appears to be slowly east-to-west ahead of Wilma, until you get to the area just south of the coast in the panhandle... there the westerlies are more evident.
Or I could be blind
