Extrapolate the motion and you get the expected result, all things being equal.

Problem is, they never are.

I agree that the strong low that was over California - and that everyone (and the models) thought would come east, rather than northeast, and move slower than it actually did probably resulted in the "bad" GFDL track.

However, the amplification pulse that I (and a lot of other people!) in the form of the second trough is still coming, and the height falls in front of it are still going to happen. These storms tend to move into weakness, and that weakness is still going to be there.

A landfall into the Yucatan would be catastrophic for them, and even if it doesn't stop an impact in Florida, it would take some of the gas out of this thing. But - and this is a big but - anyone who bets the farm on that scenario right now could easily be picking up matchsticks in a few days.

I see differences in the pattern, but not in the overall synoptic environment, and I am getting increasingly concerned about a secondary (if you can call it that) impact in the New England area early next week due to the storm phasing with the front that looks to be moving right on schedule. A storm with 100kt winds moving at close to 50kts would be the equivalent of a 150kt storm if you're on the "wrong" side of it - that would be truly horiffic if it comes to pass, and way beyond anything that people are expecting up there.

I believe that we'll know quite a bit more by tomorrow evening in terms of whether the trough connection is going to "miss" or not, and if it does, if the height falls will be sufficient to initiate the movement north and eastward. My money is still on "yes", but I'm keeping a wary eye on this thing - this storm has been amazing so far, and those "wobbles" are something that I don't think I've ever seen before (at that level of amplitude) Those almost look like a mini-eye rotating around a larger, internal eye - a wild structure if indeed that's what's going on.....